Trying to decipher the machinations of deal making in Albany, New York is impossible. Add to that a political culture that is a wreck of mess, and it should come as no surprise  the state is facing budget ruin. Despite all of this, it looks like gay marriage will get a hearing before the year is out. Yesterday Gov.David A. Paterson said the state’s Senate leadership promised a gay marriage vote.

“This is the first time that the Senate leadership has indicated that it will support a vote on marriage equality,” Paterson said. “This is a stunning and very happy development in this process. I will continue to place marriage equality on any special sessions that I call on Monday and Tuesday because I feel that the bill should be debated immediately. However, I have profound respect for the leadership of the Senate and the process that they took to bring us to this vote.”

Yesterday was the type of day that would tire the patience of any marriage advocate. For awhile it looked like the Senate was going to punt and to be honest, I really have no idea how marriage will fare in the Big Apple Empire State. Sure the Democrats have a slim majority, but when it comes to marriage equality I’ve decided to stop paying attention to polls and what people say they will do.

Last year during the race for president there was much talk about the infamous Bradley Effect. The theory that white voters are never honest when polled  if they will vote for a black candidate, has been discredited but was part of the media narrative. Looks like it applies more to marriage rights.

Sure his poll numbers would give any political operative agita. The state’s budget outlook is bleak and the New York Senate just ended a month of nutty nuttiness. Yet Gov. David Paterson was treated like a rock star when he walked into the Empire State Pride Agenda’s summer-tea fundraiser.The annual event, held this past Saturday in East Hampton, Long Island, works as a social and a way for New York pols to show their love to Empire State gays and lesbians. Junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand made an appearance but Paterson was the main attraction. People rushed him, shook his hand, spoke into his ear, and cameras worked overtime.

Makes sense really. Sure he might not get reelected next year but only the churlish would say Paterson has not carried the water for gay marriage. Now it’s fair to question his motives and to note he usurped the long and dogged work others had done before him (like the folk at ESPA); however, Paterson has his pen ready to sign a gay marriage bill. And unlike another executive we all know and love (he lives in the White House), no one doubts the governor will give the bill his John Hancock.

Paterson has hinted he would like the Senate to deal to with marriage rights in September. If he holds to the plan, the governor will call the Legislature back for a special session to fix the state’s budget in the early fall; the Senate will be able to vote on gay marriage then (the Assembly has already passed a gay marriage bill).

I’ve repeated myself but it rings truer now. If you live in New York and gay marriage is your issue, then now is the time to get out the wallet and donate some cash to Paterson (I’m sure he wouldn’t mind some volunteer hours also). He’s going to need all the help he can muster. Plus you owe him.

After a month of escapades that made clown shows look classical, New York’s Senate is returning to work. The Democrats are now back in power and one of the men who brought the state’s business to a halt will be rewarded with a new gig.

When Bronx Sen. Pedro Espada left the Democrats to caucus with Senate Republicans  approximately a month ago, state business came to a screeching halt. Now Espada has returned, Democrats have their original small majority, 32 to 30, and the renegade is the senate’s majority leader. Fellow Democrat Malcolm Smith keeps his title of Senate president.

For some reason a lot of our readers were convinced Espada’s actions were because he didn’t want to see a same sex marriage bill be voted on. Ahhh, if that were only the case. Espada is actually one of the co-sponsors of the gay marriage bill and promised since early June that once Albany got its act together (stop laughing!), he would bring the issue to a vote.

What will happen now as the dust is settling? State Sen. Tom Duane, the state’s only openly gay senator, issued a statement yesterday saying marriage rights in New York will be be put on the back burner.

“As disappointing as it is to admit, it is clear that this week is not the right moment for same-sex marriage legislation,” Duane wrote.  “Senators need some time and distance to regroup after this month’s partisan-charged and explosive atmosphere. Before June 8th, Senators from both sides of the aisle committed to me that they would vote for marriage equality. I still believe this to be the case. However, as I have said many times this session, I will not gamble when civil rights are at stake.  If this means a short delay in order for marriage to become law it is well worth the wait.”

This strikes me as the right note. Duane, whose advocacy for same sex marriage and other LGBT issues is impeccable, is realistic about the state’s political landscape right now. The kookiness of the past month makes it impossible for marriage rights to get a fair or just hearing. To push a vote for it now just to have a vote is more political theater than anything else. Plus this is Duane talking. He’s earned our trust on this topic.

This actually happened a few days ago but you know how Pride works in New York. June is all pride 24/7 . Some businesses and restaurants, hoping to get those pink dollars, have the rainbow flag waving from the start of June until July 4.  All of this  can be a little bit overbearing. A friend last night noted he was “prided out.”

Those of you who have been with us since we were Visiblevote, will remember Pauline Park. She is the co-founder of  NYGRA, the New York Association for Gender Rights Advocacy, and was the grand marshal of the 2005 New York City Pride March. Pauline has been on the city’s public airwaves this week. On Tuesday she was part of a panel on the Brian Lehrer Show that looked at  gay politics since Stonewall (she had a return appearance on Friday  for a more in depth conversation about the transgender legislation languishing in Albany). And on Thursday, she was part of a protest against Christine Quinn, the city’s first woman and openly gay council speaker. The protesters were skeptical of Quinn’s record, especially when it comes to pushing human rights legislation and her support of Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

“She [Quinn] has not supported a progressive LGBT agenda. In practice she has not been  an ally at all of the LGBT community,” Pauline said on Friday.

Of course, and even Pauline would agree with this, there are a number of people out there who would disagree with this assessment and think when it comes to gay rights, Quinn has been right on the mark; however, what I’ve always liked about Pauline is that she never allowed her work for LGBT rights to overshadow her larger political goals. They were one in the same.  She can acknowledge the historical nature of Quinn’s appointment and yet be critical of the speaker’s agenda.

I’m repeating myself but a vibrant gay politics works best when it focuses on the prizes of gay rights and larger political goals. In today’s parade, many of us will be connected by our commitment to gay liberation, but will be on the opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to other political objectives. That dichotomy shows a level of political maturity and it needs to be nurtured and supported. There is nothing wrong with having our power brokers and the folk outside looking to change the very nature of the power game. The history of the country is the tension between those two camps.

I’ll post Pride parade photos tonight and tomorrow morning.

The measure’s prime Democratic sponsors, Sen. Thomas Duane and Assemblyman Daniel O’Donnell of New York City, say the issue is too important to push during the political turmoil in a Senate split 31-31. Paterson and senators question the validity of the sessions in which neither side will allow the other a 32-senator quorum needed to vote.

“I would be very resistant to the Senate voting on it until it was crystal clear the vote was legal and our action would ultimately and unquestionably make it law in New York state,” Duane said. “As I’ve said, I think it’s a terrible idea to gamble with our civil rights.”

“The Senate – as it’s currently operating – would prevent it from being enacted,” O’Donnell said. “How does that help anybody?”

Gov. David Paterson, who strongly supports a same-sex marriage law, removed same-sex marriage Thursday from his agenda items in the extraordinary session he called.

“We expect that marriage will be at the top of the agenda when the stalemate is over and the Senate resumes its business,” said Alan Van Capelle, executive director of same-sex rights group the Empire State Pride Agenda. “The bill must be handled respectfully and given its due debate so that senators can vote their conscience.”

Supportive politicians and activists remain confident the bill will gain final legislative approval in the Senate.

“I am disappointed, I’m sad. However, I still strongly believe that marriage equality in New York state is inevitable,” Duane said.

New York’s warring Senate factions have been paralyzed since a June 8 coup by a Republican-dominated coalition over the Democratic conference.

On Thursday, the Senate’s Democratic conference of 31 senators and the coalition each held sessions for a total of less than five minutes. It was a slap in the face for Paterson, who threatened to withhold their $160 daily expenses for every day they are in Albany and will try to dock their pay. They are paid a minimum of $79,500 a year before leadership stipends.

Both sides say they’re working on a deal to share power – if only temporarily – to extend critical laws and authorize local government taxes that face deadlines in six days. They had wanted to go home to negotiate over the weekend and return Monday in a single, working session, but Paterson said they could provide no proof they are close to a deal.

That “made me think they are more concerned about how they spend their weekend, than how the people of New York spend the period after July 1 when the legislation doesn’t pass and laws expire exposing counties and municipalities to grave risk,” Paterson said.

“I think we’re all hostages,” said Sen. Carl Kruger, a Brooklyn Democrat, who called Paterson incompetent.

Democratic conference leader John Sampson, of Brooklyn, and coalition leader Sen. Pedro Espada, of the Bronx, insisted a power-sharing agreement is in the works.

“Now we’ve adopted a new approach,” said Espada, the Senate president elected by the coalition. “There is a reliance now on mutual respect and on really looking beyond ourselves to saving this institution and the embarrassment that has been brought to all of us.”

“We’re working,” Sampson said in an interview. “The deadline is looming.”

The 80-year-old Republican, who retired last year as the state’s most powerful Republican, tells The Associated Press he now sees the issue as a civil right.

“As a Republican, I believe in personal freedom,” Bruno said in a written statement. He said support of the measure by Democratic Gov. David Paterson, a friend and longtime collegial adversary in the Senate, helped him change his mind about same-sex marriage. Bruno blocked an earlier version of the bill that the Democrat-led Assembly passed two years ago.

“I opposed same-sex marriage largely because the overwhelming majority of my caucus opposed it,” Bruno stated. “As a relatively conservative Roman Catholic, I instinctively view marriage as the foundation of the family.

“However, that view really does conflict with the rights that are afforded all of us,” he said. “This is America and we have inalienable rights … life is short and we should all be afforded the same opportunities and rights to enjoy it.”

Bruno’s wife of 57 years, Barbara, died in 2008 after years of suffering from Alzheimer’s disease.

Whether the bill to legalize same-sex marriage would pass in the Senate, now engulfed in a leadership struggle, remains unknown. The Assembly has already approved the measure, and Paterson supports it. But Republican senators, who would be crucial to gaining final legislative passage, haven’t seemed to budge on the issue.

In an interview, Bruno said that although he opposed the measure in the Senate, he has grown to see same-sex marriage as a fundamental right equal to those protected by the Founding Fathers and President Abraham Lincoln.

Bruno can’t lobby the Legislature for another year under state law and says he hasn’t spoken to any officials about his views, only his friends and family.

Bruno was the Senate majority leader from 1995 to 2008. He faces a federal indictment accusing him using his public post to enrich himself by $3.2 million.

Bruno is the chief executive officer of CMA Consulting Services, an information technology consulting business based near Albany.

“This is getting a little ridiculous,” Paterson said Wednesday as he pledged to work with whoever wins. “They’ve got to act like adults.”

Meanwhile, the Senate Democratic conference, which appeared to lose its majority Monday to a coalition of Republicans and dissident Democrats, said it would seek a temporary court order to stop the takeover.

Paterson spoke two days after Republicans and the rogue Democrats secretly engineered a parliamentary power play, apparently ousting the Senate leader and flipping control of the chamber. Sens. Pedro Espada Jr. of the Bronx and Hiram Monserrate of Queens joined with the Republican minority to form a bipartisan 32-30 majority.

Shocked, the Senate Democrats responded by leaving the floor, locking the doors to the Senate chamber and refusing to open them. The insurgents reacted by threatening to hold a session in a nearby park if necessary.

“The Senate majority is fully prepared to go back to the people’s work but will not enter the chamber to be governed by unlawful rules,” said Austin Shafran, spokesman for Senate Democratic leader Malcolm Smith.

Paterson added to the pressure on Democratic leaders Wednesday, calling on them to open the chambers and vote on the leadership – even thought it could mean his fellow Democrats would be forced to relinquish power. Shortly after the governor’s press conference, Espada announced that he had the keys to the chamber. He refused to say how he got them.

Espada said Wednesday that Monserrate assured him he is still a part of the coalition, and neither is leaving to rejoin the Democratic conference. He said the leadership issue doesn’t require another vote and will stand up to any challenge.

“The only issue is how the Senate Democrats’ minority will respond today,” he said.

He said other Democratic senators will be joining the coalition, but it’s up to them to say so.

“I am president pro tem of the new coalition government. Period. End of story,” Espada said.

Paterson said he hopes his fellow Democrats prevail in the dispute over leadership. He called for returning attention to the big issues facing the state.

A spokesman for Senate Republican leader Dean Skelos didn’t return calls for comment.

On Monday, the coalition voted to approve hastily introduced measures that changed the leadership structure. Neither Espada nor Monserrate changed party affiliation, but their votes helped the measures pass 32-0 after the rest of the Democratic conference left the chamber or refused to vote.

No one knows for sure whether the power grab will hold. Democrats assumed the majority in January for the first time in decades.

Democratic Assembly Member Daniel O’Donnell’s amendments make explicit that the legislation does not limit the existence of single-gender sports teams and schools, and ensures that district reporting requirements are neither duplicative nor burdensome, his office said Wednesday.

O’Donnell’s anti-bullying and anti-discrimination legislation has passed the Assembly seven times since 2002 with overwhelming bipartisan support.

Each time it has been stonewalled in the Republican-controlled Senate over the inclusion of sexual identity.

A spokesperson said that O’Donnell actively sought and considered the input of the State Education Department in formulating the amendments. By working closely with department staff, the legislation can be more easily implemented and will more likely accomplish its intended effect, O’Donnell’s office said in a statement.

“The Dignity For All Students Act is stronger than ever. The bill is now the most solidly written, most vetted anti-bullying bill in Albany,” said the openly gay O’Donnell.

“If the Senate is serious about protecting the well-being and safety of New York’s students, and not just making an election-year play, they will immediately introduce and pass this version of the legislation.”

The Dignity For All Students Act would afford all persons in public schools an environment free of harassment and discrimination based on actual or perceived race, national origin, ethnic group, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender or sex. 

The bill, which has consistently passed the Assembly with broad bipartisan support, has been endorsed by Governor Paterson, and yet consistently meets roadblocks in the Senate.