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Loading ...Poll: Support for Calif. anti-gay amendment wanes
09.18.2008 11:30am EDT
(San Francisco, California) A new poll of California voters shows that a proposed amendment to ban same-sex marriage in the state continues to evaporate.
The Field Poll released this week finds that only 38 percent of likely voters support the measure, known as Proposition 8. Fifty-five percent of those polled say they will vote against the amendment, the Sacramento Bee newspaper reported Thursday.The last Field Poll, taken in July, found only a nine point spread, with 42 percent in favor of amending the constitution and 51 percent against banning gay marriage.
In May, the state Supreme Court ruled the 2000 initiative unconstitutional, opening the door to same-sex weddings throughout the state.
Last month, a state appeals court in Sacramento turned down an urgent appeal of a lower court ruling that upheld Attorney General Jerry Brown’s definition of the proposed constitutional amendment.
Protect Marriage, the group promoting the amendment, had alleged that the way Brown’ worded the measure for the ballot was prejudicial.
The ballot question originally had been described as a measure to limit marriage between a man and a woman. In July, Brown changed the description to say the proposed amendment would eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry and that it could result in California losing tens of millions of dollars in taxes.
But the change in wording had little effect on swaying voters away from the amendment, the new Field Poll shows.
The pollsters gave half of the likely voters the original wording and the other half the new wording. In both cases, only 38 percent said they would support the proposed amendment.
Field found that Republicans were more likely to support the amendment than Democrats. Voters in San Francisco and Los Angeles were more likely to oppose the amendment, while those inland were generally favorable to the measure.
Brown, a Democrat, opposes the amendment. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) also opposes the amendment and has said he will campaign against it.
AGAIN - “Schwarzenegger says he will campaign against it” - REALLY? When the f*ck is going to STOP SAYING this and finally DO something about it? ALL words - NO action! How REPUBLICAN!
Scharzennegar will do nothing to fight this. Except say he’ll fight it. Then if the measure is defeated in Nov. He’ll stand up and take credit for fighting it.
If it Passes (which is highly unlikely) He’ll be able to say “Dat’s Vat Da Peeplz vanted” And there will not be one single ad or news item linking him to actually fighting against the measure. He will remain untaited. And his desire for more right-wing supported power in the future goes unscathed.
I think in a poker game during the movie ‘Total Recall’ The characters called this ‘playing your cards close to your flak-jacket’.
At this point, I’m not sure we’d want Schwarzenegger to actively fight it. His approval rating has dropped from 65% to 38% over this budget mess. And the unions are circulating a recall petition against him. They probably won’t get enough signatures to force a special election. But he’s kind of damaged goods right now.
Its called ‘lip-service’ people and despite the sexy name its not what you think. Every politician does it. Republicans pander to the pro-life crowd but do nothing. Democrats promise gays the moon and don’t deliver. This really shouldn’t surprise anyone. Moving forward: the fact that support is slipping away (even if it isn’t going to our side) is a hopeful sign. More needs to be done. With Fundies pouring in millions in “God’s money” to support their bigoted agenda its going to take boots on the ground to defeat them. If you live in California and you’re gay or lesbian: engage your friends and family, neighbors, classmates, and people on the street and explain (politely) how Prop 8 will harm you. I’m betting that the 4% that shifted from Pro to Undecided have started to think about how their vote will effect their gay friends and family. But if they don’t know any gay or lesbian people its much easier to cast a vote against ‘Them’ than it is to cast a vote against their own friend or coworker.
The poll numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. In 2000 Prop. 22 was polling by 51% acceptance and passed by 61% of electorates who voted. The reality is every possible NO vote is needed to defeat Prop. 8.
I’ll be happy at this point just to have Arnold NOT campaigning FOR Prop 8, since we know he will never actually follow through and do any campaigning against it.
After all, this is the guy who vetoed same sex marriage legislation twice, claiming that he was waiting for the Supreme Court case to be decided first. Then he (or his representatives) went into the Court and said they shouldn’t decide the case because it should be decided by the Legislature. Typical Republican doublespeak.
We still have to assume a very good chance that we are going lose here, especially with the phenomenon of people showing more prejudice in the privacy of the ballot box than in interviews with pollster. We have to work our asses off to educate, talk to our friends, neighbors, co-workers, etc.