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Loading ...Poll: Calif. still divided on marriage
03.10.2009 8:23am EDT
(San Francisco, California) A new poll of Californians shows that LGBT rights groups still have a lot of work ahead of them in gaining acceptance of equal marriage.
If the state Supreme Court upholds Proposition 8, the measure adopted by voters in November banning gay marriage, there is increasing speculation that rights groups will attempt to place a repeal question on the ballot, possibly in 2010.A Field Poll released Monday shows that prospective voters remain deeply divided over the issue of same-sex unions. Forty-eight percent said they would vote to repeal the proposition. Forty-seven percent would vote to maintain the ban. Five percent are undecided.
When the 3.5 percent margin of error is factored in, it is a dead heat.
In November, Prop 8 passed with just 52 percent support.
The new Field Poll also raised the question of marriage versus civil unions.
Forty-five percent said same-sex couples should be allowed to marry. Thirty-four percent favored civil unions and 19 percent said gay and lesbian couples should not receive any state recognition. Only two percent of those polled had no opinion.
The release of the poll came as Equality California, the state’s largest LGBT rights group was announcing a new team to fight for same-sex marriage. The group hired Marc Solomon, the founder of MassEquality, who successfully fought two attempts to put a same-sex marriage ban in the Massachusetts constitution, and Andrea Shorter, a co-founder and director of And Marriage For All. Shorter will help build bridges between gays and people of color and faith.
Earlier this month the California Supreme Court heard arguments challenging the way Prop 8 was placed on the ballot. The court has 90 days to issue a ruling.
In 2004, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Some 8,000 couples exchanged vows before the state Supreme Court ruled Newsom had acted illegally.
The court nullified the marriages, but said its ruling dealt only with Newsom’s actions. The justices said at the time the question of whether barring same-sex couples from marrying violated the state’s equal protection clause of its constitution was a separate matter.
Legal challenges on the constitutional question were begun almost immediately. Three separate suits ultimately were wrapped together into a single case.
In March 2005, a Superior Court judge in San Francisco ruled that the law denying same-sex marriage was unconstitutional, but the ruling was stayed while the state appealed.
In October 2006, the California Court of Appeal in a split decision overturned Kramer’s ruling.
Last May, the state Supreme Court upheld the appeal court ruling and some 18,000 same-sex couples were married before Prop 8 was approved in November.
In surveys, about 4% of respondents self-identify as gay. There may be more who don’t come out of the closet to the interviewer, but I would be careful of estimating that gay people are legion. One study showed that people who thought gays were less numerous were more likely to support gay rights. Of course, it’s possible that these were well educated people, so they were familiar with the 4% figure and also were more progressive. It’s also possible that people who think gay people are legion are more likely to feel threatened by us.
I don’t know if I trust this recent survey. I think there’s definately a “Bradley Effect” going on among surveys concerning the gay marriage issue. Let’s face it: we can’t trust heterosexuals (even ones who have some sympathy for us) to vote on issues that affect OUR well-being but not theirs. More than likely, they will not understand how this affects gay folks, even though they should.
On a slightly different note, I think that gays in CA should put the marriage issue up in 2010 and every two years UNTIL the prop 8 ban is repealed. It is still TOO EASY for heterosexuals to go throughout their daily lives without ever considering how injustices penetrate the lives of glbt folks. Even if this ban isn’t repealed in 2010 or 2012, at least the issue is kept alive and VISIBLE in the minds of ALL folks.
I mean, come on, what’s worse than what happened with prop. 8? Gay folks could feel equal and married before the law for 5 months (from when the CA sup. ct ruled and when prop. 8 passed) and then all those good feelings got robbed from us (even if we weren’t the ones who actually got married) when Prop. 8 passed. Losing in 2010 again and in 2012 seems to pale in comparison to the rollarcoaster of emotions experienced by gays in 2008 in CA. I personally think this glbt community is strong enough to handle a potential loss in 2010, 2012, 2014, and until that Prop 8. is repealed for good.
You can’t trust haterosexuals. They lie. According to polls days before the election NO on Prop 8 had a 10 point lead. Haterosexuals LIED. In Arkansas only a month before the anti-gay adoption vote a poll showed 55% would vote against it. Come election day 60% voted for it. Haterosexuals LIED. A day after haterosexuals in Florida banned gay couples from marrying a poll showed 70% of haterosexuals believed in equality for gay people. Haterosexuals LIED. A gay man running for state office in Oklahoma was defeated by 10% after holding a lead throughout the race and outraising money of his opponent. Haterosexuals LIED.
In this current poll of California voters you can bet that the 5% of “undecided” voters are against gay couples marrying.
No on 8 was too confident. It was clear that the LDS had a very organized campaign to get 8 passed, more so than the Catholics. It was the Mormons who led the religious groups supporting 8. This information was out there; did someone have the crazy, naive idea that Mormons only have money for funny underwear and tango lessons? At least one of the largest fruit producers in Hawai’i has deep Mormon roots. The software industry has been exploding in Utah for several years–did anybody think they were all über-liberal expat Californians?
What No on 8 needs to do is to look at what pro-gay groups OUTSIDE California have done to gain public support. I’m not talking about being a self-apologist, but I am talking about taking your message to what has traditionally been enemy territory. If you let the Orange County GOP bang the drum on anti-gay stuff, it will have an impact, even though the OC is far more socially liberal than many other parts of the country. Hammer away at the ideals of individual self-determination and fairness. The Obama campaign was very effective at building a victory from incremental advances among traditional opponents. State publicly and bluntly that the law places no burden of accomodation or inclusion on religious institutions (the exception to that is when churches get government money). Cite the state and Federal constitutions. Put the 8 supporters on the defensive. Stop being a bunch of self-congratulating, gay-ghetto elitists. Get your hands dirty.