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Loading ...Poll: Calif. still divided on marriage
03.10.2009 8:23am EDT
(San Francisco, California) A new poll of Californians shows that LGBT rights groups still have a lot of work ahead of them in gaining acceptance of equal marriage.
If the state Supreme Court upholds Proposition 8, the measure adopted by voters in November banning gay marriage, there is increasing speculation that rights groups will attempt to place a repeal question on the ballot, possibly in 2010.A Field Poll released Monday shows that prospective voters remain deeply divided over the issue of same-sex unions. Forty-eight percent said they would vote to repeal the proposition. Forty-seven percent would vote to maintain the ban. Five percent are undecided.
When the 3.5 percent margin of error is factored in, it is a dead heat.
In November, Prop 8 passed with just 52 percent support.
The new Field Poll also raised the question of marriage versus civil unions.
Forty-five percent said same-sex couples should be allowed to marry. Thirty-four percent favored civil unions and 19 percent said gay and lesbian couples should not receive any state recognition. Only two percent of those polled had no opinion.
The release of the poll came as Equality California, the state’s largest LGBT rights group was announcing a new team to fight for same-sex marriage. The group hired Marc Solomon, the founder of MassEquality, who successfully fought two attempts to put a same-sex marriage ban in the Massachusetts constitution, and Andrea Shorter, a co-founder and director of And Marriage For All. Shorter will help build bridges between gays and people of color and faith.
Earlier this month the California Supreme Court heard arguments challenging the way Prop 8 was placed on the ballot. The court has 90 days to issue a ruling.
In 2004, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Some 8,000 couples exchanged vows before the state Supreme Court ruled Newsom had acted illegally.
The court nullified the marriages, but said its ruling dealt only with Newsom’s actions. The justices said at the time the question of whether barring same-sex couples from marrying violated the state’s equal protection clause of its constitution was a separate matter.
Legal challenges on the constitutional question were begun almost immediately. Three separate suits ultimately were wrapped together into a single case.
In March 2005, a Superior Court judge in San Francisco ruled that the law denying same-sex marriage was unconstitutional, but the ruling was stayed while the state appealed.
In October 2006, the California Court of Appeal in a split decision overturned Kramer’s ruling.
Last May, the state Supreme Court upheld the appeal court ruling and some 18,000 same-sex couples were married before Prop 8 was approved in November.
Hard statistics are difficult to come by and since our own census does not even count us – harder even still. When you factor in the number of people who engage in homosexual sex but do not consider themselves to be homosexual or even bisexual, things get complicated even further. However, if I had to venture a guess, I would say that if you factor in bisexual people (whether they acknowledge that identity or not) – somewhere between 5-10% does not sound unrealistic in terms of the overall population.
Actually Morgan dear I suspect the infamous 10% to be to lOW! I’m thinking more in the range of 40 to 45%!
I think the 10% figure for gays is too high. That came from Alfred Kinsey the sex researcher. but still 10% sounds like wishful thinking to me. 4% is probably is more realistic a figure for purely gay people and higher likely for bisexual Americans.
After having lived in our home for a year or so (have now been in our home 17 years) I happened to encounter a neighbor and during our conversation she said, “you are such nice guys and you are really no different than we are.” Did she think that because we are gay we eat snakes and pray to idols? Therein lies our problem – people know nothing about us other than what they have been told from the pulpit.” The general public needs to be educated!! Hopefully our organizations will focus on educating the ignorant public.
Our partners may be of the same sex, but our daily lives are no different than the rest of the population and that needs to be hammered into their heads.
Dermot,
Blue doesn’t necessarily mean liberal though, especially in regard to gay rights.
Gays will never have equality so long as status for it requires voter approval. So what if a majority at some point happens to support us. What if at some point in the future the majority doesn’t anymore?
Actually, California isn’t the most liberal, though it has some of the most liberal sub-state-level regions in the country. California is divided largely between a deeply liberal coastal region and a deeply conservative inland region (primarily the expansive Central Valley, which is something of a Deep South Bible Belt exclave because of mass-migration from places like Oklahoma and Arkansas during the Great Depression). This almost 50/50 split of liberal and conservative within California and the resulting frequent civil culture clash has been a central aspect of California politics for decades. This is also why California tends to be considered the state that sets trends for the U.S. as a whole, because it’s sort of the same divide that the U.S. as a whole has. So California, rather than being the most liberal state, is socially nearest to the center. This also applies to the large states of New York and Florida, which also have large divisions of sub-regions that are very liberal and very conservative.
If you’re thinking which U.S. top-level regions are the most liberal, the District of Columbia is in first by a wide margin, being solid blue in virtually every local election. And the most liberal whole state tends to be Massachusetts.
Better work on the 5% of undecideds and get them to maybe think more about how Prop 8 harms couples, especially those with children’s future to worry about.
48% over 47% is nice but far too thin a margin to count on if a repeal needs to be put before the voters. GOOD LUCK!
People could say one thing to a pollster to look nice but in the privacy of the voting booth do the exact opposite.
So, uh, best work on educating and hopefully swaying the undecided to vote YES ON REPEALING PROP 8 (in case the court lets Prop H8 stand and a repeal by CA voters is needed)
Polls are fine. I think many people want GBLT people to be treated fairly. What are we going to do about people’s fear of what MIGHT be taught in schools?
I think that issue real or not is what caused prop H8 to pass.
Tom in Long Beach
My only issue is that this is California, If half the population in California don’t see me as an equal member of the society because of something I completely have no control over, my sexual orientation. California should be the most liberal state in the USA. This issue disturbs me.
This would be encouraging news but for the fact that the Field poll showed us ahead as late as August of last year, too. We still need to turn these numbers into a win at the polls on election day.
I agree with Warren and look forward to seeing what Mark Solomon will do when he takes the helm at Equality California. One thing I hope that Californian’s do, however, is protest like hell outside the businesses that supported prop 8. Don’t give them a minute of peace until the hurt to their wallet is so great that they capitulate. I wish I were in CA to help with this matter. One thing that I (and I hope most other gay and lesbian folks outside of CA) am doing, is to refuse to buy anything made or grown in CA.
If you( THE MAJORITY) can repeal the rights of one group then are we that far from repealing the rights of another group?So, when do the blacks have to start worrying about their civil rights being recinded -since they only represent just 13 % of the U.S. population- a true minority !(gays are at 10 %)DONT FOOL YOURSELF -IT CAN HAPPEN !!
I highly suggest the folks taking the lead on this issue pound the pavement and show the yes on 8 folks who we really are.
That’s fine. All the counts is the 48% who want to repeal Prop 8. That means a substantial amount of the voters supports us. The 47% who want to maintain the ban have a right to their bigotted opinion but no where in American law does it give them a right to enact their bigorty into law. It is anti-American for them to argue otherwise and they know it. If 47% (or 52% or even 100%) of voters can take away the rights of a minority then the minority has no rights and that means no one has freedom. To paraphase the H8′ers – “that’s how our system works – get over it!”