Comments on: Ore. gay rights activists aiming for new vote http://www.365gay.com/news/ore-gay-rights-activists-aiming-for-new-vote/ The daily news source for the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender community Sun, 29 Jan 2012 17:11:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.4 By: Kari http://www.365gay.com/news/ore-gay-rights-activists-aiming-for-new-vote/comment-page-1/#comment-75735 Kari Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:43:37 +0000 http://www.365gay.com/?p=10559#comment-75735 If we make the (maybe unrealistic) assumption that opposition to a marriage ban implies support for marriage, the probability of a repeal effort succeeding in Oregon in 2012 is about 96%. The ban only pass by 56.6% in 2004. Meanwhile, support for same-sex marriage has trended upwards by about 2% per year nationally. Based on a multivariable regression model, estimated support for repealing the Oregon amendment should only be around 49.8% now, but will be around 58% in 2012. Consequently, the probability of such a ban being upheld at the ballot box would be quite small. If we make the (maybe unrealistic) assumption that opposition to a marriage ban implies support for marriage, the probability of a repeal effort succeeding in Oregon in 2012 is about 96%.

The ban only pass by 56.6% in 2004. Meanwhile, support for same-sex marriage has trended upwards by about 2% per year nationally.

Based on a multivariable regression model, estimated support for repealing the Oregon amendment should only be around 49.8% now, but will be around 58% in 2012. Consequently, the probability of such a ban being upheld at the ballot box would be quite small.

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