Comments on: One-in-four chance McCain wouldn’t survive 2nd term http://www.365gay.com/news/one-in-four-chance-mccain-wouldnt-survive-2nd-term/ The daily news source for the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender community Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:09:06 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Trace http://www.365gay.com/news/one-in-four-chance-mccain-wouldnt-survive-2nd-term/comment-page-1/#comment-23035 Trace Wed, 01 Oct 2008 23:25:54 +0000 http://www.365gay.com/?p=3494#comment-23035 I didn't know that second terms were automatic? I didn’t know that second terms were automatic?

]]> By: Jizzle http://www.365gay.com/news/one-in-four-chance-mccain-wouldnt-survive-2nd-term/comment-page-1/#comment-22987 Jizzle Wed, 01 Oct 2008 17:38:11 +0000 http://www.365gay.com/?p=3494#comment-22987 I'm not a McCain fan, but come on, is this really news? McCain is older than Obama, his likelihood of dying is higher obviously...and we're talking about a second term [and he hasn't even gotten into a first term]...this is a terrible non story, next I’m not a McCain fan, but come on, is this really news? McCain is older than Obama, his likelihood of dying is higher obviously…and we’re talking about a second term [and he hasn't even gotten into a first term]…this is a terrible non story, next

]]> By: Chris Sullivan http://www.365gay.com/news/one-in-four-chance-mccain-wouldnt-survive-2nd-term/comment-page-1/#comment-22982 Chris Sullivan Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:14:27 +0000 http://www.365gay.com/?p=3494#comment-22982 Add to this the stress of a Presidential campaign, regardless of which candidate it is on. He has shown exceedingly poor judgment though - Palin was the 1st major misstep and his "rushing off to save the bailout" being #2. Both have backfired to one degree or another. Seems the bar for Palin is now set so low that she only has to be left standing for her people to declare her victorious. While I'm not of the mindset that McCain's age should be a disqualifier - it is a factor that should nonetheless be considered, moreso when you consider that Palin would default into the Presidency is he should pass - a terrifying thought at best. Add to this the stress of a Presidential campaign, regardless of which candidate it is on. He has shown exceedingly poor judgment though – Palin was the 1st major misstep and his “rushing off to save the bailout” being #2. Both have backfired to one degree or another. Seems the bar for Palin is now set so low that she only has to be left standing for her people to declare her victorious. While I’m not of the mindset that McCain’s age should be a disqualifier – it is a factor that should nonetheless be considered, moreso when you consider that Palin would default into the Presidency is he should pass – a terrifying thought at best.

]]> By: pogovio http://www.365gay.com/news/one-in-four-chance-mccain-wouldnt-survive-2nd-term/comment-page-1/#comment-22973 pogovio Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:21:29 +0000 http://www.365gay.com/?p=3494#comment-22973 Being a mathematician, I looked up the mortality tables and did these calculations several weeks ago. From those tables for the general U.S. population, it worked out to be a 1-in-3 chance that McCain would die before the end of a second term. The Atlanta actuarial firm has "individualized" the probability for McCain, - that is, increased his probability of 8-year survival. This undoubtedly was because of the superior medical care his wealth and position would buy. However, it's not likely they factored in a decrease because of the trauma of his years as a POW, because the statistical data base just doesn't exist for that. Nevertheless, the decreased longevity due to early life hardship is known, it's just not known how much would result from this particular trauma. I think it's misleading for the firm to quote the 1-in-4 chance of death, without acknowledging that the general actuarial tables yield a 1-in-3 chance. Being a mathematician, I looked up the mortality tables and did these calculations several weeks ago. From those tables for the general U.S. population, it worked out to be a 1-in-3 chance that McCain would die before the end of a second term.

The Atlanta actuarial firm has “individualized” the probability for McCain, – that is, increased his probability of 8-year survival. This undoubtedly was because of the superior medical care his wealth and position would buy. However, it’s not likely they factored in a decrease because of the trauma of his years as a POW, because the statistical data base just doesn’t exist for that. Nevertheless, the decreased longevity due to early life hardship is known, it’s just not known how much would result from this particular trauma.

I think it’s misleading for the firm to quote the 1-in-4 chance of death, without acknowledging that the general actuarial tables yield a 1-in-3 chance.

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