November 22nd, 2009
 

365 Gay: News

Obama jumps to 7-point lead


(Washington) Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.

Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets. On top of that, unrelated surveys show Obama beating McCain in several battlegrounds, including Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania – three states critical in the state-by-state fight for the presidency.

Several GOP strategists close to McCain’s campaign privately fret that his chances for victory are starting to slip away.

These Republicans, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid angering the campaign, point to several factors: Obama’s gains nationally and in traditionally GOP states, no McCain gain from the first debate, McCain’s struggles with economic issues as the financial crisis has unfolded and deepening public skepticism about his running mate, Sarah Palin.

They said McCain’s options for shaking up the race are essentially limited to game-changing performances in the final presidential debates or in Palin’s vice presidential debate with Joe Biden Thursday night. Short of that, they said, McCain can do little but hope Obama stumbles or an outside event breaks the GOP nominee’s way.

Not all Republican insiders are so pessimistic.

Obama’s failure to achieve a double-digit lead and maintain it “has given a lot of hope to Republicans,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. Yet he also allowed, “You can’t have a playing field that leans this heavily toward the Democrats and not be nervous.”

Added Neil Newhouse, also a Republican pollster: “If anybody thinks we’re in for a straightforward next month of this campaign all they have to do is look back at the last 30 days” of topsy turvy developments.

To be sure, the election is still a month away, plenty of time for anything to happen in politics.

Yet the AP-GfK poll shows McCain faces substantial hurdles.

With the perilous financial situation at the forefront of voters’ minds, 60 percent in the survey say it’s more important to them to choose a president who would make the right economic decisions than a commander in chief who would make the right decisions on national security. Obama leads among economic voters, with 63 percent support, while McCain is ahead among security voters, with 73 percent.

As the two senators prepared to vote late Wednesday on the administration’s $700 billion bailout plan, 16 percent of likely voters said they thought McCain hurt negotiations over the proposal when he bolted back to Washington last week to get involved. Just 5 percent thought Obama did damage when he returned after a summons by President Bush to attend a White House meeting on the crisis.

McCain also lost ground among likely voters on experience, though he still leads on the issue, while Obama’s marks ticked up slightly. And McCain slid a bit as voters measured which candidate “cares about people like me,” while Obama gained.

Adding to McCain’s woes, just 25 percent of likely voters say Palin has the right experience to be president if needed, a huge drop from 41 percent in the previous poll last month. She posted an enormous loss in confidence among Republicans; three in four had called her experienced enough before, but not even half say that now.

“If she was running the helm, she wouldn’t know what she’s doing,” said Caitlyn Pardue, a Republican from Rohnert Park, Calif., who decided last week that she probably would vote for Obama after determining that Palin “doesn’t have the breadth of knowledge.” Pardue, 60, called McCain’s selection of Palin “pretty ill-advised” and added: “It shows irresponsibility to me.”

In Port Orange, Fla., Jaimye Strickland just decided this week that she’ll probably support McCain – even though she’s “hoping and praying” he doesn’t end up following Bush’s path. “I’m afraid of Obama,” the Republican, age 56, said. “He doesn’t have the experience that McCain does.” She also said she worries that “he has some Muslim ties,” even though she knows he’s a Christian.

Outwardly, McCain’s campaign expresses optimism, and advisers say they expect the race to reset itself several more times.

But privately some advisers acknowledge the difficult seas he is trying to navigate as the economy dominates the race. The Republican has previously agreed that the subject is not his forte, and historically the party in power loses elections during economic recessions.

Seeking traction, McCain sought to change the story line as the week began by questioning Obama’s character, particularly during a crisis.

“A vote for Senator Obama will leave this country at risk,” McCain said in a scathing speech. “We need a president who will always tell the American people the truth. … Country first or Obama first?”

Efforts also were under way Wednesday that suggested McCain and the Republican National Committee would start ramping up TV advertising – and going on the air in more media markets – to close the spending gap in Florida, Missouri and other key states. Industry officials say Obama is shelling out $13 million this week compared with $11 million by McCain and the RNC combined.

Meanwhile, it appears Obama may be padding his edge in the Electoral College vote count in battleground states.

Polls show he has started pulling away from McCain in pivotal vote-rich states that Democrat John Kerry won four years ago and that McCain has made targets this year, including Michigan and Pennsylvania. Surveys also show that Obama is a few percentage points or more ahead in Ohio and Florida, two critical states that Bush won four years ago and that McCain must retain to have any hope of winning the White House.

Quinnipiac University surveys released Wednesday found that Obama’s support jumped to 50 percent or more in three of those states: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Combined, they offer 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory on Nov. 4. New CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. polls also showed Obama ahead in Nevada, Virginia, Minnesota and Florida, and tied in Missouri.

At the same time, McCain and his Republicans find themselves in the undesirable position of having to defend traditionally GOP states they hadn’t anticipated would be competitive. Obama successfully put Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina into play by pouring money and manpower into the states at levels until recently unmatched by Republicans.

The AP-GfK poll involved telephone interviews of a nationwide sample of 1,160 adults, including 808 likely voters, from Saturday through Tuesday. Interviews were conducted on both landline and cell phones. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 3.4 percentage points for likely voters.


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  • Bud Evans Said: November 18th, 2008 at 2:44 am
    • Well, it’s over for now. The 2008 Presidential Election is history. A benign bigot won who expected our unconditional support but who, in turn, would not even speak up for our right to be treated as equals and to protect the ones we love. By Obama’s incessant, and unethical, repetition of: “I believe marriage is between a Man and Woman” mantra he gave permission for voters in his own party of “Hope” and “Equality for All” to vote Yes for Obama and Yes for Proposition 8 in California.

      YES WE CAN! …Indeed.

      Thanks for your support, Obama. I guess we got what we deserved for being so naïve. We are politically expendable. Nothing is going to change that fact any time soon either. Fear drove most of us to support a candidate who does not support us. He does not view us as equals — no matter what his finely tailored speeches profess to his immense tapestry comprising millions of disciples loosely stitched together by White guilt, Black disenfranchisement, Blue-Collar displacement and Gay desperation.

      Yet how committed is Obama to some of his congregation? Imagine the mixed message Obama sent to the people of California — especially in the minority community. After all, how many of them must have asked this to themselves, as they went to vote: “Well, Obama is against homosexuals getting married — so why should we be for it. Obama is a fair and reasonable man, so it must be wrong. Like he said, in so many words, it’s not right for queers to get married. They can go sit at another table. The Marriage Table is reserved for “god’s chosen people” — for heterosexuals only.” Or so says our great, fair-minded, emancipator of the downtrodden.

      Yes, thanks for nothing, Obama. One word, just one word, just a simple: “Vote NO on Proposition 8” might have made the difference in many people’s minds – especially in the uneducated minority community where too many, unfortunately, relish the thought of the role of a formerly oppressed minority being reversed so that they can take out their angst by kicking another minority in the teeth.

      Tragically, far too many in racial minority communities believe that the road to status quo membership in society is to find another minority to take their place at the bottom of the social heap. And the religious excuses they use are lame rationalization for their minority targeted, anti-social, bigoted, vile behavior. It is the same conduct attributed to how White Trash treated Blacks in the 1960s in the South. To paraphrase Shakespeare: The play is the same, only the actors have changed roles.

      Barrack Obama made reference to us in the GLBT community during his acceptance speech Nov. 3, 2008, where we were sandwiched somewhere between Blacks and Whites and Disabled People. I listened to his soaring rhetoric with sadness — erudite and inspiring, but still filled with empty, meaningless words that I doubt will ever find application.

      Blacks, Latinos and other minorities don’t need him to fight for their civil rights anymore. The only minority left in the United States against whom it is legal to discriminate is the GLBT community. Like a good lawyer, Obama is both comprehensive and evasive in his message of “inclusion” involving us — which usually ends with an segregationist scheme. Where is the unqualified outrage that Robert Kennedy showed when he spoke out against racism before his own tragic life was ended by an assassin’s bullet? Where is the uncompromising convictions of a Lyndon Johnson who knew the Democratic party would lose the South if he pushed for the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act? But Johnson pushed for its passage anyway.

      Blacks could just have been ignored before the riots of the 60s. They were not that essential in the political scheme of things on Capital Hill. But, at their own political risks, many White politicians put their political careers on the line to stand up for what was right. No minority in this country would ever achieve equality without a fair judiciary and without the political leadership that sets the wheels of justice in motion.

      For those who say that only the courts shall be the final arbitrators of our fate, I say you are wrong. When Brown vs. The Topeka Board of Education was decided, the Eisenhower Republican administration was already on board to end segregation in America. When Loving vs. Virginia was decided, the political climate in Washington (after the 1964 Civil Rights Act) was already in favor of quietly removing the last racial barriers dividing the races in America. And even though the majority of Americans still were against interracial marriage, after the Supreme Court Ruling in 1967, there was no political upheaval over it.

      So who now in American politics is our champion? Who now would risk any of their political capital for us? All we are told is to be quiet and to let things happen gradually behind the scenes. Our leaders in the GLBT community tells us to be patient. But “baby-steps” is quickly becoming the new definition for bullsh*t. Radical changes rarely happen in slow motion. Demands for equality are never heard if they are whispered.

      Our own history should inform us. Where would the GLBT rights movement have been without Stonewall to get the ball rolling. Also contributory, the GLBT organization called ACT-UP was considered by many mainstream Gays as being too “militant” but they brought public awareness to the HIV/AIDS crisis in the 1980s in ways that the mainstream, Gay unfriendly, media would never willingly do. ACT-UP’s public acts of civil disobedience made people see the epidemic in ways that quiet talk behind closed doors could never accomplish.

      We need a pro-active organization like that now to publicly demand our rights. Scream, shout, lie down in the streets and tie up traffic. Chain yourselves by the hundreds, all over the country, to the doors of Marriage License Bureaus if that’s what it takes to show we are serious. How can we expect other people to understand that Rights are not a gift to be bestowed or taken away by any benign or hostile majority. Equal Rights, just like every other American’s Rights, belong to us too at birth and cannot be taken away.

      Now ask yourself this about our newly elected President, Ask yourself: if some other minority was the object of a hateful proposition that would have denied them equal citizenship, would Barrack Obama have been so silent on it? I think not. But see how easily he makes the transition from lofty platitudes and his glorious rhetoric of “inclusion” and “equality” to jumping aboard the hate-wagon rolling over our bodies and the bodies of those we love — that is, if that wagon just happens to be moving in the direction he wants to go.

      And please don’t dredge up that tired old chestnut of “well, if he openly supported our rights, he wouldn’t win”. The fact of the matter is that Obama didn’t have to lock himself into the indefensible position of opposing our equality while supporting an apartheid system of laws created just for our management. He did not have to ride the wave of bigotry to election.

      When asked about marriage equality, he could have simply said that the question should be left up to the states (a position I don’t agree with any more than interracial marriage should be allowed to just remain a state issue), never-the-less, he could have just left it at that. But no, he had to be over-emphatic in his denunciation of same-sex marriage equality at every opportunity. What kind of “friend” to our community is that?

      Obama took tens of millions of dollars from us for his campaign and tens of millions of votes from us to further his ambitions and then he turns his back on us to let the wolves come together to rip us to shreds — many of whom were his strongest supporters, in his own race, who joined with the very same people they despised in the Republican party. All the while, Obama turned a blind eye to this blood-fest. Is that the kind of Messianic leader the GLBT community has been waiting for? If I where a religious person, I’d say it sounds more like the coming of the anti-Christ.

      I did not vote for Obama. My Gay neighbor, at first, said that he would never vote for Obama either. But then, for whatever reason, he jumped on board the bandwagon. I suppose the high school football lure of being on the winning side is like an irresistible narcotic enticement too much for some people with weaker convictions to resist. It didn’t matter much though, because we both live in the Reddest of Red States — Kansas. So, a symbolic protest vote against Obama would not have altered the election one bit.

      I may have even held my nose and voted for Obama if I lived in a Swing State because the thought of a malignant bigot being elected over a benign bigot would be too great a risk even for me to imagine. It is so tragic that we only have such unhealthy choices to make. It is really time we start looking for a viable third party, at least in Congress to start — the Presidency later.

      If Joe Lieberman could control the agenda with just his one vote in the Senate, a third party of around ten percent of the members of Congress could give maximum representation to a minority such as ours. A third party would be a powerbroker and could caucus with either party for control of Congress and in setting political agenda on a quid pro quo basis. Coalitions could be formed and “orphan” legislation (that is legislation which no party wants to go out on the limb for alone) could be passed.

      We owe nothing to the Democratic Party because they have (witness DOMA and DADT) given us nothing but betrayal or indifference in return. I really wanted to like Obama, but I don’t believe he has the courage to stick his neck out for us like President Johnson did for Black folk. I’d be pleasantly surprised if I am wrong. But I will not hold my breath until then.

      (C) Bud Evans, 2008

  • Alex785 Said: October 6th, 2008 at 3:41 am
    • Bud evans either hates himself, or he is some blind put up from the republicans as another one of their dirty tricks, to split the gay community and supress their vote.

      You have a choice – for people who will respect gay people as people, not the Jews of Hitlers Germany, and you will make great progress.

      Or you can have McCain / McB.t.h, and put the haters on the supreme court for the next 30 years. And watch America become nazified, don’t think it can’t happen here.

      The republican party is totally corrupted by it’s right wing, and fits in many ways the combination of the big money people, combined with right wing religion, that gave the world the dark ages and 50 million Muslims murdered. And mad as it was, 9/11 was payback for that scene, for societies have long memories.

      And Hitler used hatred of the Jews to gain total control and give the world WWII. Same scene, different day.

      Bud, please go take a flying leap off the top of some big building. It is obvious who you are, AND I IMPLORE EVERYONE TO REALIZE THAT BUD HAS A DIRECT LINE TO KARL HEIL HITLER ROVE, AT THE WHITE HOUSE. For their time, probably the worst criminals we have ever had in Washington.

  • AR Said: October 2nd, 2008 at 9:38 am
    • I’m surprised it’s only 7%. With all the travesty that is coming from the Republican ticket, I surely thought it would much higher.

      Regarding the $700 billion bailout, I suggest people look at Michael Moore’s interesting suggestion on how to handle this crises. It begins . . .

      The richest 400 Americans — that’s right, just four hundred people — own MORE than the bottom 150 million Americans combined. 400 rich Americans have got more stashed away than half the entire country! Their combined net worth is $1.6 trillion. During the eight years of the Bush Administration, their wealth has increased by nearly $700 billion — the same amount that they are now demanding we give to them for the “bailout.” Why don’t they just spend the money they made under Bush to bail themselves out? They’d still have nearly a trillion dollars left over to spread amongst themselves!

  • Mark Said: October 2nd, 2008 at 9:31 am
    • Amen Bud Evans….I am a democrat voting for Obama, not my first choice but the best we have in the running as far as I can see….

  • blacksteel Said: October 2nd, 2008 at 9:26 am
    • “Some Gay People Have Actually Looked Behind the Curtain…”

      And what they often find is a Republican operative masquerading as a Democrat or independent and trying to sow confusion and doubt in order to undermine support for the Democratic candidate. It’s an old political stunt.

  • Bud Evans Said: October 2nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
    • Some Gay People Have Actually Looked Behind the Curtain…

      I am gratified to find so many soul-mates on 365Gay.com forums, such as: Simon Jones, Trace, Rodney Moore, Mr. Smith, and so many more of you who are coming out everyday to denounce this farce that was being epitomized as “our last hope“. Too many of us have been deluded into thinking that Obama will usher in a Golden Age of Freedom for our kind. We should not hold our breath on that presumption — unless we are tired of breathing, that is.

      As I said before, I have no doubt that our priority to him, and to a Democratic-controlled Congress, would rate somewhere far below that of protecting the Black-footed Ferret and passing a resolution to honor National Cabbage Day. If we don’t get a pro-labor, pro-civil rights third party firmly entrenched, in at least 10% of the seats in Congress, then the two party power structure will continue to cooperate in at least two things: (1) favor the current status quo, job-destroying, financial Darwinism of Wall Street, while (2) concurrently doing their best bit of “across the aisle cooperation” by resolutely ignoring the GLBT Community into complete irrelevancy.

      So, I thank all of you who understand that by our not demanding our rights from those we have put into office — we gain nothing. By eagerly settling for insulting proposals of social apartheid and segregationist legislative “final solutions” to our disenfranchisement — we deserve the contempt we receive . I wish more people would understand that we are not traitors to our own kind, committing political “homo“-cide against the “Gay race“, just because we point out the dangerous hypocrisy of those who claim to be our “friends”. The “go along to get along” Uncle Tomishness, of what embarrassingly passes as leadership in our community, has just made enablers of us all. Don’t we get the kind of leadership we deserve, if we do not demand better?

      I implore people not to send more money to HRC if they continue to just wine and dine greedy, power-hungry politicians who could care less about our rights. Just ask yourself this: when the day comes that we finally achieve our full civil rights in this hateful country, who will need the Democrats to advocate for GLBT causes? Don’t you think the DNC realizes that fear every time they hit us up for the tens of millions of dollars we splurge on their campaigns in return for half-hearted promises they have no intention of keeping?

      For all the many years of our financial support and with our loyal vote, can you name one major piece of legislation, or even a small one; any pro-GLBT civil rights bill that has ever been passed when the Democrats were in power for the majority of the last fifty years? We got DADT and DOMA instead (under a Democratic President, I might add) which could not have passed without the consent of the Democrats and the full collaboration of the leadership of the Democratic party with the Republicans.

      Too many Democratic politicians fear that if we get what we want, then we wont need them anymore. Our complete egalitarian assimilation into this society would spell doom for many who have exploited the GLBT community for so very long. It is not in their best interest to end our dependency on the Democratic Party. They fear that; I smell it on them. We are useful (and reliable) fools with the cash and the votes they need — especially in a close election.

      I agree with you “Simon Jones”, and with so many of you in the GLBT community at large who have seen through the Democrats’ cynical ploy. If only we truly had stronger leadership in our community we just might have a stronger, more united community. Where are our role models for the next generation of GLBT youth to emulate?

      We really need committed people who could organize peaceful protests, and insist on our uncompromising demand for equality, while convincing the Circus Clowns and the Refugees from Marti Gras to leave their sequined jockstraps and pink fright wigs at home. This rebuke has nothing to do with the legitimate transgender community, which also desires to be taken seriously. It is about self-destructive exhibitionism which degrades us all as a legitimate minority group that is struggling for its freedom. Since when did we become the GLBT and E(xhibitionist) Community?

      Perhaps if we would act more determined, and with true pride, about not settling for anything less than being treated with unequivocal respect for our human dignity and for our human rights; then perhaps, just perhaps, more people would believe we deserve our fair share of both.

      ~ Bud Evans

 
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