Subscribe to Breaking NewsWithers: A closer look at the New York marriage poll numbers
While Albany dithers, there is something going on in the rest of the state. As we reported yesterday, according to a Quinnipiac University poll a slim majority of New Yorkers now support legalizing gay marriage. This is an uptick from approximately a month ago, where the same pollsters showed New York voters evenly split on the topic.
Under the headlines, however, there are numbers that need to be talked about. Mainly because it shows what can be done if you don’t follow the playbook of those who ran the “No on 8″ campaign. Black New Yorkers split with 43 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed; 55 to 39 percent from Hispanics. This is a marked improvement from the last poll when black voters were opposed to marriage rights 57 to 35 percent.
There are a number of factors worth talking about and it would be unfair to say one or two were key. It’s worth noting the opposition is weak and disorganized and all they can muster is the occasional rhetorical flame from state Senator Ruben Diaz. Second marriage advocates in New York have been putting the seeds down in Albany for sometime, taking the slow steps to change the minds of politicians (or doing the work to get some pols out of office). And making sure the brown and black voices are involved in the conversation.
I’m too old to be lulled by a poll and if New York passes same sex marriage tomorrow (who knows how the Albany Senate will end its session) everything could change. Nor do I think this means black homophobia has declined; however, I know this; Washington, D.C., a predominately black city, has come out for gay marriage and right now a small majority of black New Yorkers feel the same. Those of you who got off on the racial angle after the Prop 8 vote and left racial drive-by messes here (my perosnal fav are those who descrbed how they marched next to MLK and now feel sooooooo betrayed) have been silent on all of this. Too old to be shocked by that.
It is encouraging to see the trend up, but what would be more encouraging would be to see multiple polls with it continuing upward or steady over a significant period of time. I agree with you, James. I’m too old and been around too long and have seen too many polls that lead to misleading conclusions to read too much into any one poll, no matter what their random sampling and statistics seem to prove.
The new poll is encouraging. I am glad that many Blacks have been supportive of marriage equality. There appears to be a problem in the Black Church, which is also a powerful political engine in the Black community, and I hope that more effort will be made, especially by Black glbtq people, to change attitudes there. Thanks, James, for this analysis.
John,
“How about shocking us once in a while then? If you’re going to play South Parks ‘Token’, then expect to be mocked as ‘race-card Withers’. Instead of trying to be the iconoclast focusing on race, how about remembering why the f*ck you’re on here. Its not to show up Sharpton.”
I know why I’m here. As for your Sharpton quip and the race card charge, both are silly and not connected to anything I’ve written.
James
@ ozzy….hahahaha, you have stumbled onto one of my favorite phrases,“think about the children”
So what’s wrong with taking results at face value and accepting that, of those New York blacks with an opinion, a bare majority supported gays being able to marry? If you said the same of Long Islanders, or registered Republicans, or people living in counties along the Erie Canal, there wouldn’t be the same scrutiny. Maybe New Yorkers are smart enough to reach out to all of their neighbors, unlike the California failure to reach out.
So basically you’re saying that you’re not impressed with polls, and then proceed to seek vindication of an entire minority for the actions of one state constituency in Cali by building an article around a 1% slice of poll data in another, showing the slimmest possible mathematical edge, defying the notion of error margin altogether, and dismissing the context of respective turnout completely.
You diligently cite the efforts of marriage advocates to bring conscientious black citizens into the tent and then close by saying that black homophobia hasnt decreased, in contradiction to the rising 25 point fruition by the efforts of the advocates.
To add, you purport that DC, a city of around 55% blacks, is in favor of marriage through some magical association that a 55% demographic must signal that they are the dynamic cause of this favorable tenor, despite the fact that DC has a massive transient ghetto, one third of the city as a whole is functionally illiterate, the crime rate is three times the national average, and to top it off, 70% of the hate crimes in DC are based on perceived sexual orientation.
So I’m either to conclude that your favorable constituency is the *many affluent blacks* in the Metro area, or that the ones engaging in basic street survival are somehow making time to get to the electoral polls on the issue of gay marriage, and the remaining mixed white and hispanic population are too busy watching cable to summon any mass of electoral clout that would explain this odd political demographic phenomenon.
After sub-titling the article with “a small majority of blacks” (<= 1%), you close by using the above to fatuously support a snide retort on the premise that people outraged at the black constituency’s collective treachery at the polls is somehow unfounded, rather than scrap all the bullshit weak statistical sophistry and simply blog on the shining black minority that did indeed vote in our favor.
No, you refute poll data as a premise, cite it, and then use the weakest possible statistics and loosest associations for a juvenile snipe at those betrayed for a simple race play.
You got my attention, to include the site, when you covered Gerren Gaynor’s insane rant at Morehouse. Goddammit, you’re smarter than this. You do not need to be making left-handed justifications, apologies or callow sneers at everyone else based on race just because your black.
“Those of you who got off on the racial angle after the Prop 8 vote and left racial drive-by messes here (my personal fav are those who described how they marched next to MLK and now feel sooooooo betrayed) have been silent on all of this. Too old to be shocked by that.”
How about shocking us once in a while then? If you’re going to play South Parks “Token”, then expect to be mocked as “race-card Withers”. Instead of trying to be the iconoclast focusing on race, how about remembering why the f*ck you’re on here. Its not to show up Sharpton.
http://regbarc.newsvine.com/_news/2007/03/19/622460-study-finds-one-third-in-washington-dc-illiterate
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/hc2005/table13washdc.htm
TampaZeke,
Fair point. I’ll change it later.
Sincerely,
James
By no measurement is 43% a MAJORITY; not even a “small majority”.
The headline should have read, “A small plurality of black New Yorkers support gay marriage.”
You forgot that New York has a little more pride than California and wouldn’t allow to become a subsidiary state of Utah. In Cali, if you have the money, you are the law. No matter how stupid that law is, just add “think about the children” and all turn into willing suckers.
Most Blacks only care about themselves (they want to be Victims) or care what their Pastor, Reverands or “Prophetess” (Like Nutcase Exorcist woman, Patricia McKinney) Tells them to think, feel or believe…
O, how can I say such a thing? Ha, Welcome to my Dark Skin reality!
I would say that most will not even vote on a referendum like one in CA except a brown skin man “Obama” was on the ballot. sad, but true. I am not in NY, but best thing that can happen is SoulForce or other groups along with Brown Skin Americans can do is carry theirselves to the Black churches and stop the misconceptions before things get like they did in CA.
If America stayed “conservative” using Bible Beliefs, we’d still be slaves and women would be property. O and we’d be able to stone adulterers like Gov. of SC, Sanford.
We need Same-Sex marriage more than Christmas gifts. And that gift comes from the heart and that is, I want to marry that Man because i love him.
We need Same Sex Marriage more than just having Straight Marriage. Because it is right for us to have that freedom to marry and so we can have the freedom to love, care, and trust. Straight Marriage is bad because Women said, Men has to be tall to marry a Woman. That did not say that in the Bible. We need to respect someone who is gay and give them freedom to live on this earth. We will not go against them with a Bible. We share the Bible with the people who is gay.
I think that we need to have Same-Sex Marriage America more than anything just Straight Marriage, because we can have the freedom to marry and not go against someone who is gay and bye. I do support Gay Marriage all my life more than just Straight Marriage because Same-Sex is more caring than just Straight Marriage.
I have to agree with James on this one. What really can be said for all of the Polls I’ve seen lately is all about how to phrase the questions. I don’t follow Polls for that reason. By simply changing the words around, a Poll can report different things–even when the same people are polled.
Polls say one thing, but when people get a change to vote for marriage on the ballot they say another – look what happened in California!!!